SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(21) Vanderbilt (15-3, 10-6 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (15-3, 8-6-1 ATS)
The Volunteers return from a two-game road trip to face in-state rival Vanderbilt in a Southeastern Conference clash at Thompson-Boling Arena.
Tennessee got a split of two roadies last week, topping Alabama 63-56 as a 2½-point chalk, then getting drubbed by Georgia 78-63 Saturday as a 6½-point favorite, ending a seven-game SU win streak (5-1 ATS in lined action). Saturday’s loss notwithstanding, the Volunteers are outscoring opponents by nearly 15 ppg on the year, averaging 78.8 ppg and yielding 64.1. Bruce Pearl’s squad is holding foes to just 38.7 percent shooting, which rates 20th nationally.
Vandy has reentered the Top 25 thanks to a nine-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) and it is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the SEC, including SU and ATS road wins over Florida and Alabama. On Saturday, the Commodores dropped Auburn 82-74, but fell short as a hefty 12½-point home favorite. Vanderbilt is putting up 79.2 ppg, with the 10th-best shooting percentage in the country at 49.7, while allowing 66.4 ppg on 40.2 percent shooting.
Tennessee won and covered in both of last year’s meetings with Vandy, both double-digit victories. The Vols won 76-63 on the road giving two points and 69-50 at home laying 10 points, moving to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings and improving to 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests (6-3 SU). Tennessee has cashed in the last four Knoxville meetings, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups, the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS surge and the SU winner has cashed in eight straight.
The Vols are on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, though they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Wednesday starts and 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU loss. The Commodores are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 in Wednesday, 6-1 after a SU win, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-2 in the SEC and 5-2 on the highway.
The under for Tennessee is on rolls of 22-8 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-1 at home and 4-1 in SEC play, and in this rivalry, the total has remained low in five straight overall and four in a row at Thompson-Boling. On the flip side, the over for Vanderbilt is on streaks of 6-1 on the road, 4-1 in conference action and 4-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) at (8) Duke (16-3, 12-6 ATS)
The Blue Devils, aiming to stay perfect at home this season, take on the Seminoles in an ACC contest at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke was dealt an 88-74 bashing last Wednesday as an 11½-point chalk at North Carolina State, but bounced back Saturday at Clemson with a 60-47 victory giving two points for its first true road win of the season as it moved to 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) in its last dozen games. The Blue Devils are outscoring opponents by an eye-opening 21.1 ppg, racking up 82.8 ppg (10th in the nation) and allowing 61.7 ppg. Furthermore, their 3-point defense rates ninth nationally, with foes hitting just 28.4 percent from long range.
Florida State bounced back from a two-game SU and ATS hiccup by posting a 63-58 win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 16 and a 68-66 win over Georgia Tech on Sunday, both at home. However, they failed to cash in both, laying six points against VaTech and five against the Yellow Jackets. In fact, the ‘Noles 4-10 ATS mark rates 293rd among the 304 Division I teams.
Where FSU is succeeding, though, is with its field-goal defense, which is No. 1 nationally at 35.5 percent. The Seminoles are allowing 60.2 ppg (21st) and scoring 72.6 ppg.
Duke has won the last four clashes in this rivalry but is just 2-2 ATS in that stretch. These teams met three times last year, with the Blue Devils prevailing 66-58 on the road as a 9½-point chalk, 84-81 at home giving 12½ points and 79-69 in the ACC tournament as a 6½-point favorite. Still, Florida State is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings (all as an underdog) and is on a 5-1 ATS run at Cameron Indoor.
The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-2 against winning teams, 5-2 in the ACC and 9-4 following a SU win. Conversely, the Seminoles are on pointspread purges 0-4 overall (all in the ACC), 2-5 as a visitor, 2-5 after a SU win, 1-6 after a non-cover and 0-4 against winning teams.
Duke is on “under” runs of 9-3 against winning teams, 21-8 within the ACC, 10-4 on Wednesday and 21-9 coming off an ATS win. Florida State has gone high in its last six Wednesday starts, but is otherwise on “under” surges of 10-3 against winning teams, 9-4 in conference play and 8-3-1 after a non-cover. Finally, the under has hit in 10 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
(12) BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) at (23) New Mexico (18-3, 13-6-1 ATS)
Red-hot Brigham Young hits the highway for the second straight game, trekking to The Pit in Albuquerque to take on Lobos in a Mountain West Conference showdown.
The Cougars were dealt a loss at Utah State on Dec. 2 and haven’t been beaten since, ripping off 15 consecutive victories (9-4 ATS in lined action), with 10 of those wins by double digits. The Cougars’ last game, however, was the tightest, as they escaped San Diego State with a 71-69 victory as a one-point road favorite Saturday.
Dave Rose’s troops are averaging 83.2 ppg (seventh in the country) while giving up 62.5 ppg, and they are in the top 10 in free-throw percentage (77.6, first), shooting percentage (50.7, fourth) and three-point percentage (41.6, sixth).
New Mexico has followed a two-game SU and ATS skid with four consecutive victories (3-1 ATS), all from the favorite’s role, including three by double digits. On Saturday, the Lobos whipped Colorado State 82-64 and cashed as a 14½-point favorite. Steve Alford’s squad is averaging 77.8 ppg while giving up 66.5 ppg.
BYU is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight clashes with New Mexico, though last year, the home team won and covered both contests. The Cougars notched a 73-62 win giving 6½ points at home, after getting thumped 81-62 as a one-point chalk at The Pit. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Cougars are on pointspread rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 13-4 after a spread-cover, 19-7-1 on the road and 12-5 in the Mountain West. Likewise, the Lobos are on ATS surges of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 18-7-1 on Wednesdays, 35-15-1 at home, 34-15-2 after a spread-cover and 11-5-1 after a SU win.
The under is on runs of 4-0 overall for BYU (all in conference play), 8-3 with the Cougars coming off a spread-cover, 5-1-1 overall for New Mexico, 6-1-1 for the Lobos in the Mountain West and 4-1-1 with Alford’s squad coming off a SU win. However, the over is 8-2 in BYU’s last 10 games against winning teams and 4-1 for New Mexico versus winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight of the past 10 meetings overall and five of the last six in Albuquerque.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Atlanta (29-14 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (25-18, 21-21-1 ATS)
Two teams headed in opposite directions hook up at the AT&T Center, where the surging Hawks complete a quick two-game Texas road trip with a game against the slumping Spurs.
Atlanta won and covered its third straight game Monday, downing the Rockets 102-95 as a one-point road underdog. The Hawks, who have scored 108, 103 and 102 points during their three-game SU and ATS winning streak, have also won six of their last seven games and eight of their last nine (7-3 ATS), but only two of those victories came on the road. For the season, Atlanta is 11-9 SU but 13-7 ATS as a visitor, barely outscoring opponents (98.3-97.8).
San Antonio has dropped an unprecedented three straight home games, all as a favorite and all in convincing fashion: 105-98 to Utah as a 5½-point chalk; 116-109 to Houston as a six-point favorite; and, on Monday, 98-93 to Chicago as an 8½-point choice. The Spurs are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games – a slump that comes on the heels of a 15-4 SU and 12-6-1 ATS roll. Gregg Popovich’s squad has been held under 100 points five times during its 1-5 funk.
The Spurs have owned this rivalry, winning six straight meetings (3-2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (6-3-1 ATS, all as a favorite) going back to the 2004-05 season. Also, San Antonio has beaten the Hawks 11 straight times at the AT&T Center, going 9-1-1 ATS. Atlanta’s lone spread-cover came last year when it ost 95-89 but got the cash as a 6½-point underdog. Despite that spread-cover, Atlanta is still just 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 series battles.
Atlanta is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 19-7-1 against the Western Conference, 21-8 on Wednesday and 6-1 after one day of rest. The Spurs’ 8-1 ATS run against Southeast Division opponents is offset by negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the Eastern Conference and 4-9 versus winning teams.
In this rivalry, the under has cashed in six of the last eight clashes overall and four straight in San Antonio. Additionally, the Spurs are on “under” rolls of 7-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 36-16-1 versus Southeast Division opponents, 4-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover, while Atlanta carries “under” trends of 5-2 against Western Conference foes, 6-2 versus winning teams, 7-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread-cover.
Conversely, the Spurs have topped the total in four straight Wednesday games, while the Hawks have done so in 20 of their last 26 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver (30-14, 20-22-2 ATS) at Houston (24-20, 22-22 ATS)
The Nuggets put a seven-game winning streak on the line when they head south to the Toyota Center looking to hand the Rockets their third straight loss, all at home.
Playing without leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (injury) and key reserve J.R. Smith (suspension), Denver got past Charlotte 104-93 on Monday, covering as a 5½-point home favorite. During the winning streak, George Karl’s club has outscored its opponents by more than 11 ppg (112.4-101.3), topping triple digits in all seven contests. However, the Nuggets are just 7-14-2 ATS in their last 23 games, and they haven’t cashed in consecutive contests once during this stretch.
Anthony is expected to return to the Denver lineup tonight.
Houston followed up Saturday’s 104-97 loss to the Bulls as a six-point home favorite with Monday’s 102-95 setback to Atlanta as a one-point home chalk. The Rockets have just four wins in their last 11 games, going 2-9 ATS, including five straight non-covers at home (2-3 SU). Houston’s defense has been virtually nonexistent lately, giving up more than 100 points in six of the last seven games (106.3 ppg).
The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams (6-3 ATS), including Denver’s 111-101 rout as an 8½-point home chalk on Dec. 16. The Nuggets have lost four straight games in Houston (1-3 ATS), and the SU winner has cashed in six of the last seven meetings.
In addition to going 7-14-2 ATS in its last 23 overall, Denver has lost seven of its last nine on the highway (1-7-1 ATS). The Nuggets are in further pointspread declines of 2-9-2 against Western Conference opponents, 0-4 against the Southwest Division, 0-5-2 after a spread-cover and 2-7 when playing on one day of rest. The lone bright spot: a 4-1 ATS run on Wednesday.
Houston has cashed in seven of its last nine against Northwest Division foes, but is otherwise in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-5 at home, 0-4 on Wednesday, 1-5 after a SU defeat and 1-4 against teams with a winning record.
Denver has stayed under the total in five of its last seven road games, but from there it is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 19-7 on Wednesday and 4-1 after one day of rest. Similarly, Houston is on “over” stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover. Finally, four of the last five clashes in this rivalry have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Utah (26-18. 26-16-2 ATS) at Portland (27-19, 24-21-1 ATS)
The Trail Blazers hope to extend the home team’s dominance in this Northwest Division rivalry, while looking to cool off the streaking Jazz.
Utah ran its winning streak to three in a row with Monday’s 124-115 rout of Phoenix, cashing as a seven-point home favorite. Not only have the Jazz won eight of their last 10 games (both losses came on the road), but they’re the hottest pointspread team in the league, going 8-0-2 ATS. Utah has scored more than 110 points in eight of those 10 games, averaging 111.9 ppg. Going back to Dec. 23, Utah has split its last eight road games (5-2-1 ATS).
Portland’s consistency issues continued Monday, as it returned home from a four-game road trip and lost to New Orleans 98-97 as a 2½-point home chalk, though the Blazers were missing star point guard Brandon Roy (injury). The Blazers are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games, with those contests decided by a total of 21 points and Portland averaging just 95.8 ppg. Additionally, Nate McMillan’s club is just 5-6 SU in its last 11 games and 7-7 ATS in its last 14.
Roy, who has missed five of the last six games, has been ruled out tonight and is sidelined for at least the rest of the week.
In the first meeting between these division rivals this season, Utah crushed the Blazers 108-92 as a five-point home favorite. The host is 8-0 SU and ATS in the last eight series clashes and 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in the last 15 battles. Going back further, the home team is on a 22-8 ATS roll when these rivals hook up, and the favorite has cashed in each of the last seven Blazers-Jazz battles.
The SU winner is 18-2 ATS in Portland’s last 20 games and 25-4-2 ATS in Utah’s last 31 contests. Finally, the winner has cashed in each of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry.
Utah has failed to cash in nine of its last 13 Wednesday contests and is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 divisional contests. After that, though, Jerry Sloan’s squad is on ATS runs of 20-8-2 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 5-0-1 against Western Conference opponents and 5-0-2 versus winning teams. The Blazers are on pointspread upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in Northwest Division games, 4-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 on Wednesday and 7-2 against winning teams.
The Jazz sport “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 20-9-1 on the road, 10-2 in divisional games, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. Similarly, Portland is on a slew of “over” streaks, including 12-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Northwest Division rivals, 6-2 after one day of rest and 4-1 on Wednesday. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and OVER
